Chapter 17 - The weather sites - whether we go or whether we stay!

For those who wanted the links to the weather sites, I have put them below with images of the winds speed and wind streamlines at 9000'.



http://aviationweather.gov/adds/winds/

Note that the winds travel anti-clockwise around lows in the Northern Hemisphere.

When you go to this link it gives the choice of selecting one of four different images and the choice of prognosis at different altitudes or Flight Levels, for up to the next 84 hours. I use this first as it gives me a wind forecast for 3 1/2 days ahead.

For the wind speeds, the longer tail on the end of the barb represents about 10 knots and a 1/2 tail represents about 5 knots. A dark flag is about 50 knots. The point of the arrow or barb is pointing in the direction the wind is blowing.


Then go to the satellite image as that gives an understanding of the cloud and the cloud movement, and visually complements the wind speed and wind stream images.

http://aviationweather.gov/obs/sat/intl/

For some reason this takes you to Aviation Weather, so in the left hand column under Observation click on Satellite - Intl. This should take you to the page above. Think I fixed it, but if not, go back to square 1.

Another visual site is http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/progs/

Finally, for the current forecast/actual wind speeds between Santa Barbara and Hawaii, use the following link.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/HFO/RFRKSF

If necessary, click Route Forecast  San Francisco/Santa Barbara to Honolulu Route

Read the bottom forecast headed SBA/HNL. For interpretation read Chapter 9.

From the top images which are forecast winds for Wednesday 3rd January 0000 UTC, I don't think we are going anywhere until at least Saturday 6th February.

Click on images to enlarge

Chapter 16 - Santa Maria and route to Hawaii

We are still waiting for the winds to drop and come from the east or at least, nil wind. Today they were averaging 19 knots headwind on the track to Hawaii.

I found a neat site which gives 84 hour pictorial projections of wind direction and speed off the west coast and another which shows cloud and height of cloud by satellite image for the Pacific between the west coast of USA and the east coast of Australia. From both I assume that there will not be a phone call until at least Sunday and I think beyond.

The take off is from Santa Maria airport to the ocean at Morro Bay.

I suspect that it has been chosen by someone because it is a long runway, the land ahead is flat (paddocks) so we have no problems with the slow rate of climb and there are no houses on the track, so in the event of something going amiss, there is no (as they say in the military) collateral damage.

From Morro Bay we head south west to pick up the commercial airway route (although at lower level of about 9000') from Santa Barbara to Hawaii. This takes us via the intersection waypoints for reporting purposes. Although we are not deviants, we do deviate a bit at both ends, because we are taking off and landing at different airports to those used by the large commercial aircraft.

Click on the photos to enlarge

Chapter 15 - It has arrived

Notification of deregistration has arrived from the FAA and an application has been made to registered the Saratoga as VH-EXS. Although a little bit of a mouthful "Echo, X-ray, Sierra", we thought that VH-EXCESS properly describes the irrationality of the purchase.

After tomorrow, it is likely that the only thing holding us back is the weather, which is still averaging 18 knots headwind at 9,000'. We would like an average 5 knots tail wind.

Having overcome fear (to some extent) of the long flight over the water, with the impending registration, the reality of the situation is taking effect. The long delay had reduced the level of inevitability and anxiety. Now, departure is imminent. Megan said she will be following the flight and I said "It will be night. You will be asleep during the long flight". She said "No I won't. I'll be awake all night. I'm scared"!.

"You're scared?" I replied "How do you think I feel? It's me it's happening to!"

For some reason I thought of Bastille day (July 14) and I thought it must be a bit like the prisoners waiting to have their heads chopped off. While hope of a reprieve remains a possibility, the pressure is not so great. As soon as the gaoler says "We're definitely chopping it off next week", reality bites.

I thought, I will call on the AA prayer which I usually use when under pressure or when stressed out & it always gets me out of trouble.

Give me the strength to accept the things I cannot change.
Courage to change the things I can.
Wisdom to know the difference.

This is the first time it has let me down. I realised that I hadn't had the 'wisdom to change the things I can'.

Oh well, it is back to Bob Hussey's comment "Give it a go" ( At your age) "You don't have a lot to lose".

Chapter 14 - No deregistration and still here

ICAO regulations are that an aircraft cannot be registered in two countries at the same time. Saratoga N6PL must be deregistered by FAA before it can be registered in Australia by CASA. After it is registered in Australia we need to get an Australian Ferry Permit. We were advise by our agent that deregistration would probably occur in the first week of January but we are still waiting and don't know why.

However, the weather has been terrible in Los Angeles and the headwinds have been impossible, so whether or not we have completed all the necessary documentation and received all the necessary permits, we aren't going anywhere. The earliest we could have the Ferry Permit would be Wednesday 27th but even that is optimistic.

Ray Clamback is in LA and has reported that the rain matches monsoonal downpours in the tropics. The winds have been averaging around 35 knots across to Hawaii.

Looking at the weather west of the US mainland there have been towering cumulus to 40,000', and Kiribati and Pago Pago having thunderstorms. All of which amounts to perfectly good reasons to go nowhere.


N6PL has been fitted with the fuel bladders and has also been fitted with HF radio to enable us to remain in contact with air traffic controllers.

When we are ready to go, the aircraft will be flown from Torrance Airport which is about 8 NM south of LAX to Santa Maria airport which is a further 116 NM north and close to Vandenberg Air Force Base. The runway is 6304 feet (1922 metres) long. It is long enough to get off 30% over maximum weight, the surrounding area is flat with minimum population under the take off path (obviously for safety reasons we won't talk about). Lyn, from past experience, reckons we will have the wheels off the ground by about 2/3 rd of the way down the runway and will then climb slowly down the valley.

Our initial clearance is likely to be 'runway 30 Obstacle Departure to Morro Bay then as filed, 3000' expect 8000', 10 minutes after departure'. Our initial track will take us roughly south west to DINTY intersection and then on the Santa Barbara to Hilo airway.


The first leg to Hilo, Hawaii is 2061 nm which we expect will take around 13 hours nil wind.

Chapter 13 - Ditching experience

Don't know whether I have previously mentioned that Ray Clamback has done over 200 crossings of the Pacific Ocean in light aircraft. Maybe I didn't mention that he has twice been in the Pacific Ocean after ditching aircraft. Once in 1999 and again in 2004. Obviously he survived both and remains undaunted. When I thought that I would be sharing the flight with Ray, I rationalised that he has been in twice so it is unlikely that he would go in again. If he did, he was at least experienced at ditching and survival.

Now I was with Lyn. I knew she had over 50 crossings to her name and some Atlantic and long ferry flights over faraway wilderness country. So that's good. Into Google Search to see if she rates a mention.

Sure enough, there she was on the front page of the Hawaii Star Bulletin web site dated 11 June 2006. Yuh! She too had ditched. Twin engine Seminole, 535 NM from  Hawaii. Maybe ditching is just a standard and regular event in Pacific crossings. At least I had another ferry pilot who was experienced at ditching.

Last check in the process was to look at the cost of insuring the plane and pilots for the crossing which is about 0.75% of the cost of the plane pre GST and Stamp Duty. If I assume the insurance company will make say 50% as income on their insurance premiums. If so, their expectation is about one ditching in 300 flights.

Getting really technical, I reasoned that if I bought a ticket in a pub for a chook raffle and there were 300 tickets, I would not be likely to win the chook. I therefore reasoned that with the same odds of ditching in the Pacific, I was reasonably safe. Good maths, logic and common sense?

Read Lyn's ditching at the following link http://archives.starbulletin.com/2006/06/11/news/story01.html

Chapter 12 - The important question most people don't ask.

Well ! What is it?

Flying 12-14 hours across the Pacific in a small aircraft with 2 seats in the front and fuel tanks in the back.

What about toilet facilities? Skip this Chapter if bodily functions are of no interest to you.

After some thought, I raised the issue with David Ind. He told me that when he flew with Ray Clamback, before take off Ray had thrown a red bucket into the plane. David asked, "What's that for"? Ray replied, "I may need a -----". "Not in my plane", replied David. "How to you plan to stop me", retorted Ray.

That solves that.

Then I found out that there are probably three aircraft leaving together and that I would now be paired with female pilot Lyn Gray. Rationalise it this way. We are all basically anatomically the same, just a little bit different in execution. That will do. Ok. I can handle this. After all I once walked Melbourne's parks wearing an overcoat and sand shoes. This should be easy.

When I spoke with Lyn and told her that David was out and I was in, after about 40 seconds she asked if I was shy. I said I was but had thought it through and I would be able to cope. She said she would look out the window at the clouds. I ask where she would look if the sky was clear.

Lyn told me that her previous co-pilots all had different techniques. Some kneeling - anyhow enough of that. Obviously there were no clouds at those times!

For the first part of the trip we are committed to remaining in the front seats as the extra load of fuel in the back takes the load back toward the aft limit of weight & balance. However, when we have burned off a few hours of fuel we may be able to climb over the front seats and be a little more dignified.

Hope that answers the question everyone wants to ask, but few do.

Chapter 11 - Across the Pacific?

Before going to the US to buy the aircraft, I had considered flying back with the ferry pilot. It took all of 3 seconds to decide that I most certainly would not fly that far across water in a single engine aircraft. I have enough trouble getting into a bath full of water without wearing floaties. For a couple of weeks I planned to ship it in a container. Although slightly cheaper, I was concerned with potential damage by removing wings and sliding it in and out of the container etc..

About 6 years ago, when the Piper Society flew to Tasmania, it took me months of research into ditching in the ocean and methods of trying to stay alive long enough to be rescued, before deciding that you didn't need a life jacket to go to Tassie as hypothermia would get you long before help arrived. I went, but sweated all the way.

David Ind had flown on the ferry flight of his Saratoga from the USA and he said he would like to do it again so I offered him the seat.

Whenever I mentioned that I didn't have the courage to fly that long over the water, all pilots, without exception, silently agreed by shaking their heads from side to side. That confirmed to me that I had made the right decision.

As time went by, I kept thinking about why shouldn't I do it. My Arrow had flown Megs and me around for 1200 hours without a hint of trouble. We had flown over all sorts of country, although I always take the longer route to fly over flat grasslands. Surely the Saratoga could stay in the air for the first 40-50 hours of my ownership. What's the worst that could happen? The intended pilot, Ray Clamback had been into the Pacific Ocean on two occassions and survived. He was experienced at ditching at sea and surviving. Prior to the Tassie trip, I had read all I could find on ditching at sea and it seemed to me that everyone (almost) survived the ditching. All that remained for survival was to get into a life raft or if floating in a life jacket, make sure there were no sharks around. Anyhow, if there were sharks and they took your legs off it would improve your bouyancy.

With all of this going on in my head, the most telling argument for going on the Pacific crossing was the advice given to me 3 years ago by Bairnsdale Air Charter owner, Bob Hussey, after I had landed at Latrobe Valley on my way to Bairnsdale, due to rapidly deteriorating weather. I phoned him and asked what the weather was like at Bairnsdale. He said that he had just made it in IFR with the weather at minima. After a brief discussion, he asked how old I was and I told him I was 67 years old. After a couple of seconds thought he said 'You might as well give it a go. You don't have a lot to lose.'

I decided that I would go if David pulled out. I would not tell David of my decision, as being a gentleman, he would opt out in my favour. However, as the winds are likely to cause considerable delays, he advised me a week ago that he could not afford a long time away from work.

So here I go.